Thursday, July 31, 2008

and fucking continues unabated / Companies / Property - Real estate sector fears huge increase in CMBS defaults: "Defaults on commercial mortgage-backed securities issued at the height of the credit bubble will more than quadruple from their current levels under conditions in the US economy expected by the commercial real estate industry, according to a report from Fitch Ratings.

Borrowers would default on an average of 17.2 per cent of securitised commercial mortgages over 10 years if the US economy dips into a recession with 0.2 per cent contraction in growth, compared with current very low default rates of 4 per cent, a rise of 330 per cent.

Such a scenario corresponds 'to the negative predictions currently offered by commercial real estate experts', analysts at Fitch wrote. This would happen if the economy suffered a similar downturn to 1991, and assumes that the value of properties covered by the deals falls by 25 per cent, and cash flow from rents by 15 per cent."

in case you were in a cave and unaware

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: "The world's largest economy contracted at a 0.2 percent annual pace in the fourth quarter of last year compared with a previously reported 0.6 percent gain, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Growth for the period from 2005 through 2007 was also trimmed.

'We're in a recession,' Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. 'It's going to widen, it's going to deepen.'

Nine of the 13 quarters under review were revised down, three increased and one was unchanged.

The largest downward revision was for the last three months of 2007, as the previously reported 2.3 percent gain in consumer spending was reduced by more than half, to 1 percent. Americans cut back on the use of electricity and gas as fuel bills soared."

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

you are getting screwed

PCBE: Transcripts (June 26, 2008): Session 3: Ethical Questions in the Reform of Health and Medical Care: "And the US is already spending -- these are figures from a couple of years ago -- by far the most of any nation on earth on healthcare. The US is on the bottom. On the top I've listed total health expenditures in other developed nations. For the US at the bottom I've listed total per capita health expenditures divided into the publicly funded and the privately funded share.

And in publicly funded I've included not just Medicare, Medicaid, VA, but also the benefit cost of public employees like schoolteachers and FBI agents, also, so-called tax subsidy to private health insurance. And when defined in that way, I want you to just look and see where that yellow bar ends. Look where the yellow bar ends.

That is, we are already through our taxes paying the full price of national health insurance in this country, and then we take an additional $2,500 out of our pockets and pay privately, and we still have the circumstance of 47,000,000 uninsured people, millions more forced into medical bankruptcy.

Now, what do we get for the extra money? And in this set of slides I've got the US in yellow, the other countries in green. What do we get? We do not get longer life expectancy compared to other nations.

We do not get lower infant mortality than other nations. In fact, our infant mortality is twice that of the world leaders.

We don't get more days in the hospital. We send patients out of the hospital quicker and sicker. We don't even get more innovation, more science. And I know one of the speakers brought that up earlier.

When you look at medical journal articles on a per-capita basis (and you get the same results if you look at total scientific output on a per-capita basis_, the United States is not a world leader. So our extra spending is not generating more in the way of science when we look at it on a per-capita basis. That is a myth.

Even for certain high-technology treatments such as bone-marrow transplants, the United States is just in the middle of the pack. Where we do lead the world is in our insurance overhead and our administrative costs. And this is expressed on a per-capita basis for every man, woman, and child in the United States .

We lead the world in insurance overhead. We lead the world in difficulties getting care. This is people are asked, percent, finding it extremely, very, or somewhat difficult to get needed care. We lead the world. This is just the English-speaking world.

Sunday, July 27, 2008

Safe banks?

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: "Many are depending on for 'Safe & Sound ratings'. My advice is don't. Please consider the following.

Safe & Sound Rating For First Heritage

The above chart is from Saturday, July 26, 2008.

FDIC Information for First Heritage Bank, N.A., Newport Beach, CA

On July 25, 2008, First Heritage Bank, N.A., Newport Beach, California was closed by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Subsequently the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. No advance notice is given to the public when a financial institution is closed."

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Seriously, get your moeny to a safe bank or to your backyard

Rising costs of financial turmoil - Yahoo! News: "'To say we could just walk away from Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac without having some severe consequences is really questionable,' says Tim Duy, an economist at the University of Oregon in Eugene. 'The government does have to make that balancing act.'

That balancing act, however, is becoming a fiscal tightrope.

And to the degree that a credit-crunched economy weakens the federal ledger – either through lost tax revenue or direct bank bailouts – one result could be a higher cost of borrowing for the government – a burden that would fall on all taxpayers.

'The credibility of the sovereign is now at risk,' Mr. Morici says. 'It is no accident that we're starting to see articles about the credit rating of the United States.'"

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Three US women priests to be ordained, excommunicated - Yahoo! News

Three US women priests to be ordained, excommunicated - Yahoo! News: "BOSTON, Massachusetts (AFP) - Three women are to be ordained as priests Sunday here in one of American's most Catholic cities, but they will face automatic excommunication by the Roman Catholic Archdiocese.

The trio is to be ordained in a ceremony performed by a woman at a Protestant church affiliated to the US Presbyterian Church and the United Church of Christ, in Boston's first female ordination.

The move has angered the Roman Catholic Archdiocese of Boston, which has sent out an email to local priests reminding them of Vatican law that women are allowed to have key roles within the church, but cannot become priests."

Friday, July 18, 2008

Daily Kos: Rove Tried to Fire Fitzgerald During CIA Leak Investigation

Daily Kos: Rove Tried to Fire Fitzgerald During CIA Leak Investigation: "In a supplement to his responses to the House Judiciary Committee, Patrick Fitzgerald confirms what we've always suspected: Karl Rove was trying to have Patrick Fitzgerald fired while Fitzgerald was still investigating Rove for his role in leaking Valerie Wilson's identity--and the timing lines up perfectly with the Administration's efforts to fire a bunch of US Attorneys."

Long time no post

So I am at Netroots Nation in Austin TX after 4 days in Alaska. There was ATV'ing, white water rafting and lots of interesting people. Now I am going from room to room listening to people have conversations about the stuff I obsess about like its normal:) Already I have several nes sites to follow and more films to watch. It's a great vacation and desparately needed. Hopefully I will have the energy and focus to post again now.