Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Seriously?

"'In principle, the stock market represents the discounted value of the future profits of corporate America. If the value rises because the economy can now be seen as growing more rapidly, then this is certainly good news. But, if future profits are projected to be higher because of lower wages or lower corporate taxes (e.g. a higher tax burden on workers or fewer public services), why should the mass of the population, who own little or no stock, celebrate?'
Good question -- especially when most indicators suggest that the economy is actually slowing. In fact, one theory for why oil prices are declining so rapidly is that speculators are selling off their holdings precisely because they fear an economic slowdown next year will depress worldwide energy demand.
Which brings us back to square one. If it is true that the Dow's recent vim and vigor is a result of falling oil prices, then what investors are actually celebrating is the likelihood of an oncoming recession. Woo hoo!"

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